A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
